Does a straight beat a flush? Of course not. A made flush always beats a made straight, as any poker hand ranking chart will tell you at a glance. But is a flush draw always better than a straight? Not necessarily. A great deal depends on what kind of straight or flush draw you’re going for. It may be that a straight draw will offer better value in certain situations, even though it’s technically weaker than a flush. Or your flush draw may have the potential to improve to something better, making it even stronger than you think. 

This blog post will take you through the comparative odds of completing a flush or a straight. In the process, you’ll gain valuable insights into how to think about these hands and how to play them to maximum advantage in online poker.

Poker Hand Probability: Odds of a Straight

A straight is a poker hand made up of five consecutive cards (e.g., 10-jack-queen-king-ace or 2-3-4-5-6) regardless of suit. Aces can be high or low but must be at the beginning or end of the sequence. It weighs in at number six in the Texas hold’em poker hand rankings, inferior to (in ascending order of value) a flush, full house, four-of-a-kind, straight flush, and royal flush.

The odds of making a straight vary according to the cards you’re dealt and the cards on the board. If your hole cards are connected, the odds of a straight coming on the flop are as follows:

• With premium connectors between 4-5 and jack-10: +7652.
• With any connectors: +9515.
• With one-gap connectors between 5-3 and queen-10: +10317.
• With any other one-gappers: +11665.
• With two-gappers between 2 and king-10:+15525.
• With any other two-gappers: +16293.

The odds of flopping a straight with a pocket pair or unconnected cards are zero.

Drawing to a Straight

It’s plain to see that the odds of flopping a straight outright are very low. If it happens, count yourself lucky. The odds of flopping a straight draw are much higher. There’s always value in playing a straight draw, even if you don’t hit it by the river.

There are two main kinds of straight draw: a gutshot straight draw (to give its common poker name) and an open-ended straight draw. Also known as an inside straight, a gutshot is four cards to a straight with only the inside card missing (e.g., 2-3-5-6, with the 4 missing). An open-ended straight is four cards in a sequence that can be completed on either side (e.g., 5-6-7-8 can be completed by a 4 or a 9).

The poker probability of flopping a straight draw is as follows:

• Any straight draw with premium connectors: +282.
• An open-ended straight draw with premium connectors: +942.
• A gutshot with premium connectors: +502.
• Any straight draw with 5-3 to queen-10 one-gappers: +357.
• An open-ended draw with 5-3 to queen-10 one-gappers: +1277.
• A gutshot with 5-3 to queen-10 one-gappers: +585.
• Straight draw with 6-3 to king-10 two-gappers: +459.
• Any open-ended draw with 6-3 to king-10 two-gappers: +2137.
• Any gutshot with 6-3 to king-10 two-gappers: +641.

Interestingly, you still have a +2327 chance of flopping any straight draw with a pocket pair.

The poker probability of hitting a gutshot draw on the turn or river is approximately +277, which improves to approximately +217 for an open-ended straight draw.

Poker Hand Probability: Odds of a Flush

A flush is a poker hand consisting of any five cards in the same suit, regardless of sequence (e.g., 2-4-8-king-ace clubs). There’s a zero probability of flopping a flush with unsuited hole cards. The odds of a flush or better coming on the flop are as follows:

• With any suited starting hand: +26927.
• With suited connectors: +10538.
• With a pocket pair: +8097.

Drawing to a Flush

The odds of flopping a flush draw are much higher than flopping a flush outright. In general, you stand an almost 11% or +809 chance of doing this with any suited hole cards.

There are two main kinds of flush draw: one-card (when a made flush is possible, but you only have one flush card) and two-card (you have two flush cards).

The odds of flopping a two-card flush draw are as follows:

• With any starting hand: +3776.
• With two suited cards: +817.

It’s generally best to let one-card card flush draws go unless you can draw the nuts. Here are the odds of flopping a one-card nut flush draw:

• With any starting hand: +58724
• With ace-x: +8829

The odds of hitting a flush draw by the river are approximately +186.

Straight vs. Flush Odds

Comparing the odds of making a straight versus a flush reveals some interesting insights. Broadly speaking, the probability of flopping a straight or flush outright is almost equal, but the odds in both cases are so low that it’s down to blind luck (or variance) — you can’t make sensible betting decisions on that basis. However, the odds of flopping a straight draw are much better than flopping a flush draw. This is why a flush outranks a straight. The odds of hitting your flush on the river are greater than completing a straight. This is what makes a flush even more powerful than a straight.

On top of that, it’s always possible for a flush to improve. Say you have a pair of premium-suited connectors (e.g., jack-10 hearts), and the flop comes with 8-9 hearts. You’re one card to a flush; if it’s the seven or queen, your hand will improve to a straight flush. This is why premium-suited connectors are included in the best Texas hold’em starting hands.

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